ALEXIS THOMPSON July 23, 2025
As a local East Bay Realtor, I hear the phrase “timing is everything” all the time—and not just from clients, but from colleagues, analysts, and the occasional dinner party guest offering unsolicited advice. But after almost 18 years in this industry, I’ve learned that trying to time the real estate market perfectly is next to impossible.
Summer often feels like a time to relax—longer days, BBQs with friends, weekends at the coast. And while I fully believe in enjoying the season, I also know from experience that the real estate market doesn’t take a vacation. In fact, I’ve seen many homes fly off the market in the summer months—often with multiple offers and well over asking. At the same time, mortgage rates can shift with little notice, and buyers waiting on the sidelines for the "right" rate or price drop can get caught flat-footed.
I've personally worked with buyers who were pre-approved and ready to go—but chose to wait. They hoped for a better deal, a lower rate, or a market dip that never came. When they were finally ready to re-enter the market, their purchasing power had diminished. In some cases, they could no longer afford the same neighborhoods or types of homes they’d been looking at just a few months earlier. It’s heartbreaking to see, especially when I knew they had a great opportunity in front of them.
For buyers, the best time to buy a home? When you see the one you love – don’t wait. It can feel scary to take the plunge, but with sound advice from your team – your realtor and your financial advisor – you can do so with a clear head. When you are settled in YOUR home, you will be happy that the search is over and the memory making can begin!
So why do I often encourage my seller clients to consider summer and early fall?
This time of year tends to be one of the most active in the East Bay. Families are eager to get settled before school starts. The weather is ideal for showings—homes look their best, and buyers are out and about. I’ve helped sellers take advantage of the long days and lush gardens to showcase their homes in the best possible light—and it works.
Don’t let talk of a "cooling" market spook (or fool) you. When a home is priced well and presented properly, I still see strong activity and competitive offers. And for buyers—if you find a home that meets your needs, don’t get stuck waiting for a perfect moment that may never come. In this market, time in often beats timing.
If you’re on the fence about buying or selling, let’s talk. I’m always happy to share what I’m seeing on the ground and connect you with trusted resources to help you decide what makes the most sense for your situation.
Let’s make the timing work for you!
—Alexis
What Buyers Should Know About Today’s Market in Orinda, California
With a current inventory of 2.81 months, Orinda remains a seller's market. This means there are more buyers than available homes, typically leading to faster sales and potentially higher prices. For buyers, this might mean acting swiftly when you find a property that meets your needs, as competition can be intense.
The inventory trend over the past month has decreased slightly by 14%, while over the past year, it has seen a minor increase of 4%. The short-term decline suggests an even tighter market in the immediate term, which could lead to more competitive bidding situations. Conversely, the slight annual increase indicates a gradual improvement in housing availability, although the market still favors sellers.
In June, homes in Orinda sold for about 133% of their asking price. This indicates that, on average, homes are selling well above the list price, reflecting strong demand and competitive bidding. In competition, buyers should be prepared to offer more than the asking price to secure a property, factoring this into their budgeting and bidding strategies.
The median days on the market for homes in Orinda is 14 days, which signifies a fast-paced market. Properties are typically selling quickly, so being ready to make decisions and having pre-approval for financing can give you an edge in this brisk environment.
The median sold price in Orinda is currently $2,000,000. Navigating a competitive housing market like Orinda can be challenging, but with the right information and strategy, you can make a successful purchase. For personalized guidance and support in your home-buying journey, feel free to contact me!
What Buyers Should Know About Today’s Market in Montclair in Oakland, CA
Montclair currently is also experiencing a seller's market, indicated by the 1.97 months of inventory. This low level of inventory suggests that homes are selling quickly and demand is outpacing supply. For buyers, this means that there might be more competition, and it's essential to be prepared to make swift decisions when a desirable property becomes available.
The inventory trend shows a slight decrease of 34% over the past month and 26% over the past year. This consistent decline in inventory suggests a tightening market, which can lead to increased competition among buyers and potentially higher prices. It’s important for buyers to stay vigilant and possibly expand their search criteria to find suitable options.
In June, Montclair homes sold for about 121% of their asking price. This high sold-to-list price ratio indicates strong buyer demand and suggests that homes are often selling above their listed prices in competitive situations.
The median days on market is 14 here as well, so when a buyer identifies a property they like, we don’t recommend wasting any time. Doing due diligence in advance can help prepare a buyer to be as competitive as possible when coming to the offer table.
Whether you are considering buying or selling, I am happy to provide you with a very localized analysis of your local market conditions to help you create advantage obtaining your goals. Reach out to me to learn how we can strategize together for the best possible outcome for you!
Recent Sales
51 Ivy Drive, Orinda
15 Cascade Lane, Orinda
Current Listings
605 Chives Way, Walnut Creek
1048 Leo Way, Oakland (Lease)
2554 Mockingbird Hill Lane, Walnut Creek
💡Advice from the field: Why you MUST put your home in a TRUST
If you own a home in the East Bay, especially in high-value areas like Orinda, Lafayette, or Berkeley, it’s critical to consider placing your property in a trust. Failing to do so could cost your heirs tens of thousands of dollars—and months (or even years) of time.
Last year, a client came to me with a property owned by his brother who asked for his help to sell. As a team, we were able to make decisions quickly and our process of getting the home on the market was moving forward smoothly. Unexpectedly and sadly, just before going on the multiple listing service, the brother passed away. Because the home was not in a trust, at that point the family had to go through a very complicated, expensive and protracted probate court process, while also mourning the loss of their family member. Because of the time it took to navigate the probate court process, the seller’s family missed an early market where this home likely would have sold in competition. Ultimately the property sold tens of thousands of dollars under the original projected sales price because of the market shift.
Placing your home in a living trust helps your assets avoid probate, ensures a smoother transfer to your beneficiaries, and gives you greater control over your legacy. The cost to set up a trust with a qualified estate attorney typically ranges from $2,000 to $4,500 in the Bay Area, depending on the complexity of your estate.
If you're unsure where to start, call me—I work with several excellent local trust attorneys and would be happy to connect you.
Summer Fun Around the Bay
Looking for some action on these long summer days and warm summer nights? Here are some events, restaurants and spotlight businesses where I hope to see you!
Blues & Brews Festival
📍 Pleasant Hill Park | 🗓️ Saturday–Sunday, July 19–20
Enjoy live blues music, craft beer tastings, and food vendors in a lively outdoor setting.
Berkeley Kite Festival
📍 César Chávez Park, Berkeley | 🗓️ Saturday–Sunday, July 26–27
A family-friendly event featuring hundreds of colorful kites, kite-making workshops, and food trucks.
Berkeley Kite Festival
📍 César Chávez Park, Berkeley | 🗓️ Saturday–Sunday, July 26–27
A family-friendly event featuring hundreds of colorful kites, kite-making workshops, and food trucks.
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